As the U.S. Senate considers a recently passed House bill that could ban TikTok nationwide, new research sheds light on where users may migrate if the popular short-video app gets taken off digital shelves. 

A survey of 1,056 American TikTok users – observing those who passively watch content rather than create it – conducted by marketing company MGH finds that nearly 60% of them would begin regularly using Instagram Reels if TikTok got outright prohibited.

The results highlight the massive potential for platforms like Instagram, which offers a Reels feature mimicking TikTok’s signature short-video format, to absorb a sizable portion of the latter’s user base in a U.S. ban scenario. YouTube Shorts, the video giant’s short-form offering, came in second with 52% of surveyed users saying they would turn to that platform.

Markedly fewer respondents (23%) indicated an interest in turning to the upcoming rival video platform from X (formerly Twitter). The disparity between Instagram & YouTube versus X underscores the resonance of established platforms already offering TikTok-like experiences.

While the TikTok ban remains uncertain, the industry is actively preparing for that possibility. The House bill seeks to address national security concerns around TikTok’s Beijing-based parent company ByteDance but also opens the door for a forced sale of the app’s U.S. operations.

Potential buyers have begun circling, with reports naming parties like former Activision Blizzard CEO Bobby Kotick, ex-Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, and celebrity investor Kevin O’Leary as prospective suitors. However, China signaled on Friday, March 15, that it would not support a forced divestment, seemingly leaving an outright ban or business-as-usual as the remaining outcomes.

In 2020, during former President Trump’s efforts to prohibit TikTok, enterprise software firm Oracle emerged as a leading candidate to acquire the app’s U.S. assets. The company ultimately struck a deal to provide cloud services to TikTok, but that relationship has since soured amid failed security remediation efforts, according to reports.

As social media rivals like Instagram prepare for a potential influx of short-video creators and viewers, platforms will likely ramp up investments in their TikTokesque offerings. The MGH survey indicates considerable demand for a prominent short-video service, regardless of the providing platform, if TikTok’s fate remains in jeopardy.

Marketers and influencers in the creator economy will be closely monitoring developments as lawmakers debate TikTok’s future in the United States. Such abrupt shifts in user behavior and audience migration could quickly disrupt current social media strategy and marketing spend allocation.